Roulette Betting
2021年7月9日Register here: http://gg.gg/vbn2m
Advanced roulette includes the racetrack betting options, and French roulette has the best odds. DraftKings Casino: You will find lessons on how to bet on roulette games at this casino. DraftKings has novelty games that include basketball roulette and spooky roulette, which has a Halloween theme. Before you place your first bet at the roulette table, observe how the other players bet, let the roulette wheel spin a couple of times — and then start betting. This will help you assess the situation and choose the best roulette strategy for the current table. Top Line Bet: One additional bet is available to players in American roulette. This bet can be made on the five numbers 0-00-1-2-3. This bet can be made on the five numbers 0-00-1-2-3. This bet pays 6-1; however, it is the only bet with a higher than normal house edge (7.9%), and should probably be avoided during play.
A bet on the red is normally considered medium risk. A bet on 2 columns would be considered low risk as you are covering almost two thirds of the table (remember there’s that pesky zero pocket (or pockets in American Roulette). 1 to 18: a low bet: on one of the first 18 numbers. 19 to 36: a high bet: one of the high 18 numbers.on
I love writing about roulette betting systems because it gives me a chance to show off both my English skills and my math skills. And since no roulette betting system works in the long run, I get to educate and perform a public service — warning people off some of the slick system-sellers who make money from your naivete.
You might be surprised to know, though, that I love to use roulette betting systems when I’m actually gambling.
Yeah, I know you can’t win in the long run with such a system.
But I get bored playing roulette without some kind of system.
And sometimes, in the short run, these systems do work exactly as intended.
Here are my seven favorite roulette systems for you to try:1 – The Martingale System
The most famous of all betting systems is the Martingale System, and it’s also one of the easiest systems to use. If you can double a number, you can use the Martingale System.
To use the system, you just place an outside bet at the roulette table – one of the bets that pays off at even money. This could be red or black, odd or even, or high or low.
If you win that bet, great!
If you lose, though, you bet again – doubling the size of your previous bet.
You continue with this progression even when you lose multiple times in a row, doubling your bet every time you lose.
If you start with a $5 bet, you’ll bet $10 after losing once, $20 after losing twice, and $40 after losing three times in a row.
New no deposit bonus for cherry gold casino free spins. Eventually, when you do have a win, you’ll win back the amount of all your previous losses and show a $5 profit.
The Martingale System sounds foolproof at first glance, and it would be foolproof except for two things.
*The first is that you don’t have an unlimited bankroll.
*The second is that the casino has a maximum betting limit.
And when you’re doubling the size of your bets, the bets can get so big so fast that you either can’t cover them because you’re out of money or because the casino won’t let you bet that much on the next spin.
Let’s say you’re playing in a game with a $5 minimum bet and a $500 maximum bet, which isn’t an unusual set of limits.
How many losses in a row do you need before you bang against the maximum bet?
*$5
*$10
*$20
*$40
*$80
*$160
*$320
Lose seven times in a row, and you can’t make the next bet in the progression.
Plus, you’ve lost $495 up until this point.
Of course, in the short run, the Martingale System works a lot of the time, but you don’t usually show much profit.
In the long run, you’ll eventually hit a big enough losing streak to wipe you out.2 – The Paroli System
The Paroli System is the opposite of the Martingale System. In fact, you’ll sometimes see it called the “Reverse Martingale.”
Instead of doubling the size of your bets after you lose, with the Paroli System, you double them after a win.
Once you’ve won a specific number of bets in a row (usually three), you return to your initial bet size.
The idea is that you’ll be taking advantage of the occasional winning streaks that are inevitable in a game of random chance like roulette.
You bet $5 on red, so you bet $10 on red on the next spin. You win again, and now you bet $20 on red.
If you win, you’ve won a total of $35 over three spins of the wheel.
And you start over again betting $5.
Of course, in the long run, the Paroli System works no better than the Martingale System, and for the same reason:
Changing the sizes of your bets does nothing to change the odds of winning or losing.
Also, you have no way of predicting when a color gets “hot.”
That’s only visible in retrospect.3 – The Labouchere Betting System
The Labouochere betting system isn’t one of my favorites because it’s more complicated than I’d prefer.
But it’s not that complicated that you can’t master it.
Here’s how it works:
You start with a list of bets of varying sizes in order from smallest to largest.
For example, you might write 10, 20, 30, and 40 down on a notecard in a row.
You start by placing the lowest bet on the card. If you win that bet, you cross out the first and last numbers on the card.
If you lose that bet, though, you add the size of that bet to the last number in the series. 10 + 40 is 50, so your list would become 10, 20, 30, 40, 50.
You play until you run out of money or until all the bets are crossed off.Roulette Betting TechniquesThis is a progressive system, like the Martingale, that tries to win back your losses based on the rules in place for the system.
You could also eventually run into the same problem you have with the Martingale. You might hit a bet size that’s higher than the table limit or that your bankroll won’t accommodate.4 – The Grand Martingale System
If you’re not afraid of risk, the Grand Martingale System might be just the ticket for you. It works just like the Martingale System but with one big difference.
Instead of doubling the size of your bet after each loss, you triple the size of your bet after each loss.
The advantage of the Grand Martingale System is that you’ll see bigger winning sessions when you do win.
The disadvantage is that the bet sizes will get much larger much faster, which means you’ll hit your bankroll or maximum bet limits sooner.
Here’s a Grand Martingale progression starting with $5:
*$5
*$15
*$45
*$135
*$405
Notice after just five losses, you must place a bet higher than the table limits of $500 to continue with the progression?
It’s a fun way to play, but it’s still a loser in the long run.5 – The Hollandish System
The Hollandish System is a gentler roulette system because you don’t raise or lower your bets as often as in other systems. Instead of raising your bet after your first one, you make three bets at a certain amount before raising the size.
The Hollandish System also takes it a little easier on you by not requiring you to raise your bets by as much. You use a specific progression, as follows:
*1
*3
*5
*7
*9
So if you start by betting $5, when you get to the next level, you’ll bet $15. And then $25, and so on.
You only move up in levels if you’ve shown a net loss from the three previous bets.
For example, you start with a $5 bet. You win twice, but you lose once. You’re showing a net profit, so you stay at that level for another three-bet streak.
Your buddy, though, lost twice and won once. After three bets, he moves up to betting $15 per bet for the next three bets.
One of the big advantages to this system is that you don’t have to increase the size of your bets as much during an extended losing streak.
Here’s what a progression would look like with six losses in a row using the Martingale System:
*$5
*$10
*$20
*$40
*$80
*$160
But with the Hollandish System, your bets would look like this:
*$5
*$5
*$5
*$15
*$15
*$15
You’ve lost significantly less money on this losing streak using the Hollandish System.6 – The Hot Number System
This isn’t even a betting system, really. It’s just an attempt to win some money by betting on the “hot” roulette numbers.
To put this system into action, just look at the board at the roulette table showing the numbers that have hit over the last 10 or 20 spins.
Find the number that’s been hit the most often.
Bet on it.
Keep betting on it until another number gets “hotter.” (That just means it’s won more times over the last 10 or 20 spins than your original hot number.
The idea is that you’ll catch a table that isn’t perfectly calibrated and win money based on the higher probability of catching that hot number.7 – Orson’s Go Big or Go Home System
This one is a system of my own devising. I like the idea of stop-loss limits and win goals, even though I understand that they don’t improve my probability of winning.
With my go big or go home system, I want to win a 35 to 1 payout or go broke, whichever comes first.
I start with about 40 bets of $5, or $200. That’s my loss limit. (I’m not willing to lose more than $200 playing roulette in a single session, almost ever.)
I then choose a number, and I keep betting on that number until it hits, or I run out of money.
Depending on when it hits, I make a big profit or a small profit.
And here’s what I do if I really want to hit it big:
*I let my profits ride so that I can win two jackpots.
*So I bet $5 on 16 and win 35 to 1.
*Now I bet $180 on that number. That’s my winnings plus my original $5 bet.
*If I win this one, it’s time to call it quits, because I’ve hit the jackpot — a cool $6300.
It’s like playing a slot machine with a $6300 jackpot, but my odds of winning are better than they would be on a slot machine game.
What are the odds of winning?
The odds of winning that bet once are 1/38, or 37 to 1.
1/38 X 1/38 = 1/1444, or 1443 to 1.
I’m still trying to win using this system.Conclusion
That’s basically just a list of my favorite seven roulette betting systems to use. I want to warn you again that none of these work in the long run.
Betting systems are not advantage systems.
Do you have a favorite roulette system that I didn’t cover here?
Leave a comment and let me know.Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.Introduction
The Gambler’s Fallacy is the mistaken belief that if an independent event has not happened in a long time, then it becomes overdue and more likely. It is also equally incorrect that if an outcome has happened a disproportionate number of times lately, compared to statistical expectations, then it becomes overheated and less likely to occur the next time. An example of this fallacious thinking might be that if the number 23 hasn’t been drawn in a 6-49 lottery the last 100 games, then it becomes more likely to be drawn during the next drawing.
Many worthless betting strategies and systems are based on belief in the Gambler’s Fallacy. I got the idea for writing about this after reading an 888 online roulette article by Frank Scoblete entitled How to Take Advantage of Roulette Hot Spots. In that article, Scoblete recommends taking a count of each outcome for 3,700 spins in single-zero roulette and 3,800 spins in double-zero roulette in the hunt for ’hot numbers.’ Never mind that this would take about 100 hours to make this many observations, assuming the industry standard of 38 spins per hour.
Before going further, let me say that I strongly believe modern roulette wheels made by top brands like Cammegh are extremely precise and any bias would be minuscule compared to the house advantage. Thus, testing a modern roulette for bias would be a total waste of time. Now, testing a 30-year-old hand-me-down wheel in a banana republic might be another story. However, you’re on your own if you win a lot of money from said casino and try to leave with it.Roulette Betting
That said, if you track 3,800 outcomes in single-zero roulette, the average number of times any number will hit is 3800/38=100. I ran a simulation of over 1.3 trillion spins, counting how many times each number was hit, sorting the outcomes to find the most frequent number and how many times it was observed, and keeping a count of how many times the most frequent number in each simulation was seen. Hottest Number in 3,800 Spins of Double-Zero Roulette
As a former actuary, I hate to use a layman’s term like the ’hottest number,’ but that is how gamblers talk so will go with that. That said, following are the results of the count of the hottest number in millions of 3800-spin simulations. Count of the Hottest Number in 3,800 Spins on Double-Zero WheelStatisticValue Mean 122.02 Median 121 Mode 120 90th Percentile 128 95th Percentile 131 99th Percentile 136 99.9th Percentile 142
Here is what the table above means in plain simple English.
*The mean, or average, count of the hottest number is 122.02.
*The median count of the most frequent number is 121. This means that over 50% of time the most frequent number appeared 121 times or less, as well as 121 times or more. This is possible because the probability of 121 observations is in both groups.
*The mode, or most count of the hottest number is 120, which happens 8.29% of the time.
*The 90th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 90% .
*The 95th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 95%.
*The 99th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 99%.
*The 99.9th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 99.9%. Hottest Number in 3,700 Spins of Single-Zero Roulette
The results are very similar with 3,700 spins tracked on a single-zero wheel. Following is a summary of the results. Count of the Hottest Number in 3,700 Spins on Single-Zero WheelStatisticValue Mean 121.90 Median 121 Mode 120 90th Percentile 128 95th Percentile 131 99th Percentile 136 99.9th Percentile 142
The following table shows the full results of the simulation on both wheels. The two commulative columns show the probability that the count of the hottest number is the number on the left column or more. For example, the probability the hottest number in 3,700 spins of single-zero roulette is 130 or more is 0.072044. Summary of the Count of the Hottest Number in 3,700 Spins of Single-Zero Roulette and 3,800 spins of Double-Zero RouletteCountProbability
Single ZeroCummulative
Single ZeroProbability
Double ZeroCummulative
Double Zero 160 or More 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001 159 0.000000 0.000001 0.000000 0.000001 158 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001 157 0.000001 0.000002 0.000001 0.000002 156 0.000001 0.000003 0.000001 0.000003 155 0.000002 0.000005 0.000002 0.000005 154 0.000003 0.000009 0.000003 0.000008 153 0.000005 0.000013 0.000005 0.000013 152 0.000007 0.000020 0.000008 0.000021 151 0.000012 0.000032 0.000012 0.000033 150 0.000017 0.000049 0.000018 0.000051 149 0.000026 0.000075 0.000027 0.000077 148 0.000038 0.000114 0.000041 0.000118 147 0.000060 0.000174 0.000062 0.000180 146 0.000091 0.000265 0.000092 0.000273 145 0.000132 0.000397 0.000137 0.000409 144 0.000195 0.000592 0.000199 0.000608 143 0.000282 0.000874 0.000289 0.000898 142 0.000409 0.001283 0.000421 0.001319 141 0.000580 0.001863 0.000606 0.001925 140 0.000833 0.002696 0.000860 0.002784 139 0.001186 0.003882 0.001215 0.003999 138 0.001652 0.005534 0.001704 0.005703 137 0.002315 0.007849 0.002374 0.008077 136 0.003175 0.011023 0.003286 0.011363 135 0.004355 0.015378 0.004489 0.015852 134 0.005916 0.021295 0.006088 0.021940 133 0.007939 0.029233 0.008196 0.030136 132 0.010601 0.039834 0.010908 0.041044 131 0.013991 0.053824 0.014384 0.055428 130 0.018220 0.072044 0.018757 0.074185 129 0.023498 0.095542 0.024114 0.098299 128 0.029866 0.125408 0.030603 0.128901 127 0.037288 0.162696 0.038228 0.167130 126 0.045771 0.208467 0.046898 0.214027 125 0.055165 0.263632 0.056310 0.270337 124 0.064853 0.328485 0.066020 0.336357 123 0.074178 0.402662 0.075236 0.411593 122 0.081929 0.484591 0.082885 0.494479 121 0.087158 0.571750 0.087696 0.582174 120 0.088520 0.660269 0.088559 0.670734 119 0.084982 0.745252 0.084406 0.755140 118 0.076454 0.821705 0.075245 0.830385 117 0.063606 0.885312 0.061851 0.892236 116 0.048069 0.933381 0.046111 0.938347 115 0.032432 0.965813 0.030604 0.968952 114 0.019117 0.984930 0.017664 0.986616 113 0.009567 0.994496 0.008614 0.995230 112 0.003894 0.998390 0.003420 0.998650 111 0.001257 0.999647 0.001065 0.999715 110 0.000297 0.999944 0.000243 0.999958 109 0.000050 0.999994 0.000038 0.999996 108 or Less 0.000006 1.000000 0.000004 1.000000 Count of the Hottest Numbers in 300 Spins in Double-Zero Roulette
What if you don’t want to spend 100 hours gathering data on a single wheel? Some casinos are kind enough to give you, on a silver platter, the number of times in the last 300 spins the four ’hottest’ and ’coolest’ numbers occurred. The image at the top of the page shows an example taken on a double-zero wheel at the Venetian.
In 300 spins, the average number of wins on a double-zero wheel for any number is 300/38=7.9. As you can see from the image above, the four hottest numbers were 20, 5, 29, and 2, which occurred 15, 14, 13, and 12 times respectively. Is this unusual? No. In a simulation of over 80 billion spins, the most frequent number, in 300-spin experiments, appeared most frequently at 14 times with a probability of 27.4%. The most likely total of the second, third, and fourth most frequent numbers was 13, 12, and 12 times respectively, with probabilities of 37.9%, 46.5%, and 45.8%. So the results of the ’hottest’ numbers in the image above were a little more flat than average.
The following table shows the probabilities of the four hottest numbers in 300 spins of double-zero roulette. For example, the probability the third most frequent number happens 15 times is 0.009210. Roulette Betting RulesCount of the Hottest Four Numbers in 300 Spins on a Double-Zero WheelObservationsProbability
Most FrequentProbability Second
Most FrequentProbability Third
Most FrequentProbability Fourth
Most Frequent 25 or More 0.000022 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 24 0.000051 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 23 0.000166 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 22 0.000509 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 21 0.001494 0.000001 0.000000 0.000000 20 0.004120 0.000009 0.000000 0.000000 19 0.010806 0.000075 0.000000 0.000000 18 0.026599 0.000532 0.000003 0.000000 17 0.060526 0.003263 0.00006
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
Advanced roulette includes the racetrack betting options, and French roulette has the best odds. DraftKings Casino: You will find lessons on how to bet on roulette games at this casino. DraftKings has novelty games that include basketball roulette and spooky roulette, which has a Halloween theme. Before you place your first bet at the roulette table, observe how the other players bet, let the roulette wheel spin a couple of times — and then start betting. This will help you assess the situation and choose the best roulette strategy for the current table. Top Line Bet: One additional bet is available to players in American roulette. This bet can be made on the five numbers 0-00-1-2-3. This bet can be made on the five numbers 0-00-1-2-3. This bet pays 6-1; however, it is the only bet with a higher than normal house edge (7.9%), and should probably be avoided during play.
A bet on the red is normally considered medium risk. A bet on 2 columns would be considered low risk as you are covering almost two thirds of the table (remember there’s that pesky zero pocket (or pockets in American Roulette). 1 to 18: a low bet: on one of the first 18 numbers. 19 to 36: a high bet: one of the high 18 numbers.on
I love writing about roulette betting systems because it gives me a chance to show off both my English skills and my math skills. And since no roulette betting system works in the long run, I get to educate and perform a public service — warning people off some of the slick system-sellers who make money from your naivete.
You might be surprised to know, though, that I love to use roulette betting systems when I’m actually gambling.
Yeah, I know you can’t win in the long run with such a system.
But I get bored playing roulette without some kind of system.
And sometimes, in the short run, these systems do work exactly as intended.
Here are my seven favorite roulette systems for you to try:1 – The Martingale System
The most famous of all betting systems is the Martingale System, and it’s also one of the easiest systems to use. If you can double a number, you can use the Martingale System.
To use the system, you just place an outside bet at the roulette table – one of the bets that pays off at even money. This could be red or black, odd or even, or high or low.
If you win that bet, great!
If you lose, though, you bet again – doubling the size of your previous bet.
You continue with this progression even when you lose multiple times in a row, doubling your bet every time you lose.
If you start with a $5 bet, you’ll bet $10 after losing once, $20 after losing twice, and $40 after losing three times in a row.
New no deposit bonus for cherry gold casino free spins. Eventually, when you do have a win, you’ll win back the amount of all your previous losses and show a $5 profit.
The Martingale System sounds foolproof at first glance, and it would be foolproof except for two things.
*The first is that you don’t have an unlimited bankroll.
*The second is that the casino has a maximum betting limit.
And when you’re doubling the size of your bets, the bets can get so big so fast that you either can’t cover them because you’re out of money or because the casino won’t let you bet that much on the next spin.
Let’s say you’re playing in a game with a $5 minimum bet and a $500 maximum bet, which isn’t an unusual set of limits.
How many losses in a row do you need before you bang against the maximum bet?
*$5
*$10
*$20
*$40
*$80
*$160
*$320
Lose seven times in a row, and you can’t make the next bet in the progression.
Plus, you’ve lost $495 up until this point.
Of course, in the short run, the Martingale System works a lot of the time, but you don’t usually show much profit.
In the long run, you’ll eventually hit a big enough losing streak to wipe you out.2 – The Paroli System
The Paroli System is the opposite of the Martingale System. In fact, you’ll sometimes see it called the “Reverse Martingale.”
Instead of doubling the size of your bets after you lose, with the Paroli System, you double them after a win.
Once you’ve won a specific number of bets in a row (usually three), you return to your initial bet size.
The idea is that you’ll be taking advantage of the occasional winning streaks that are inevitable in a game of random chance like roulette.
You bet $5 on red, so you bet $10 on red on the next spin. You win again, and now you bet $20 on red.
If you win, you’ve won a total of $35 over three spins of the wheel.
And you start over again betting $5.
Of course, in the long run, the Paroli System works no better than the Martingale System, and for the same reason:
Changing the sizes of your bets does nothing to change the odds of winning or losing.
Also, you have no way of predicting when a color gets “hot.”
That’s only visible in retrospect.3 – The Labouchere Betting System
The Labouochere betting system isn’t one of my favorites because it’s more complicated than I’d prefer.
But it’s not that complicated that you can’t master it.
Here’s how it works:
You start with a list of bets of varying sizes in order from smallest to largest.
For example, you might write 10, 20, 30, and 40 down on a notecard in a row.
You start by placing the lowest bet on the card. If you win that bet, you cross out the first and last numbers on the card.
If you lose that bet, though, you add the size of that bet to the last number in the series. 10 + 40 is 50, so your list would become 10, 20, 30, 40, 50.
You play until you run out of money or until all the bets are crossed off.Roulette Betting TechniquesThis is a progressive system, like the Martingale, that tries to win back your losses based on the rules in place for the system.
You could also eventually run into the same problem you have with the Martingale. You might hit a bet size that’s higher than the table limit or that your bankroll won’t accommodate.4 – The Grand Martingale System
If you’re not afraid of risk, the Grand Martingale System might be just the ticket for you. It works just like the Martingale System but with one big difference.
Instead of doubling the size of your bet after each loss, you triple the size of your bet after each loss.
The advantage of the Grand Martingale System is that you’ll see bigger winning sessions when you do win.
The disadvantage is that the bet sizes will get much larger much faster, which means you’ll hit your bankroll or maximum bet limits sooner.
Here’s a Grand Martingale progression starting with $5:
*$5
*$15
*$45
*$135
*$405
Notice after just five losses, you must place a bet higher than the table limits of $500 to continue with the progression?
It’s a fun way to play, but it’s still a loser in the long run.5 – The Hollandish System
The Hollandish System is a gentler roulette system because you don’t raise or lower your bets as often as in other systems. Instead of raising your bet after your first one, you make three bets at a certain amount before raising the size.
The Hollandish System also takes it a little easier on you by not requiring you to raise your bets by as much. You use a specific progression, as follows:
*1
*3
*5
*7
*9
So if you start by betting $5, when you get to the next level, you’ll bet $15. And then $25, and so on.
You only move up in levels if you’ve shown a net loss from the three previous bets.
For example, you start with a $5 bet. You win twice, but you lose once. You’re showing a net profit, so you stay at that level for another three-bet streak.
Your buddy, though, lost twice and won once. After three bets, he moves up to betting $15 per bet for the next three bets.
One of the big advantages to this system is that you don’t have to increase the size of your bets as much during an extended losing streak.
Here’s what a progression would look like with six losses in a row using the Martingale System:
*$5
*$10
*$20
*$40
*$80
*$160
But with the Hollandish System, your bets would look like this:
*$5
*$5
*$5
*$15
*$15
*$15
You’ve lost significantly less money on this losing streak using the Hollandish System.6 – The Hot Number System
This isn’t even a betting system, really. It’s just an attempt to win some money by betting on the “hot” roulette numbers.
To put this system into action, just look at the board at the roulette table showing the numbers that have hit over the last 10 or 20 spins.
Find the number that’s been hit the most often.
Bet on it.
Keep betting on it until another number gets “hotter.” (That just means it’s won more times over the last 10 or 20 spins than your original hot number.
The idea is that you’ll catch a table that isn’t perfectly calibrated and win money based on the higher probability of catching that hot number.7 – Orson’s Go Big or Go Home System
This one is a system of my own devising. I like the idea of stop-loss limits and win goals, even though I understand that they don’t improve my probability of winning.
With my go big or go home system, I want to win a 35 to 1 payout or go broke, whichever comes first.
I start with about 40 bets of $5, or $200. That’s my loss limit. (I’m not willing to lose more than $200 playing roulette in a single session, almost ever.)
I then choose a number, and I keep betting on that number until it hits, or I run out of money.
Depending on when it hits, I make a big profit or a small profit.
And here’s what I do if I really want to hit it big:
*I let my profits ride so that I can win two jackpots.
*So I bet $5 on 16 and win 35 to 1.
*Now I bet $180 on that number. That’s my winnings plus my original $5 bet.
*If I win this one, it’s time to call it quits, because I’ve hit the jackpot — a cool $6300.
It’s like playing a slot machine with a $6300 jackpot, but my odds of winning are better than they would be on a slot machine game.
What are the odds of winning?
The odds of winning that bet once are 1/38, or 37 to 1.
1/38 X 1/38 = 1/1444, or 1443 to 1.
I’m still trying to win using this system.Conclusion
That’s basically just a list of my favorite seven roulette betting systems to use. I want to warn you again that none of these work in the long run.
Betting systems are not advantage systems.
Do you have a favorite roulette system that I didn’t cover here?
Leave a comment and let me know.Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.Introduction
The Gambler’s Fallacy is the mistaken belief that if an independent event has not happened in a long time, then it becomes overdue and more likely. It is also equally incorrect that if an outcome has happened a disproportionate number of times lately, compared to statistical expectations, then it becomes overheated and less likely to occur the next time. An example of this fallacious thinking might be that if the number 23 hasn’t been drawn in a 6-49 lottery the last 100 games, then it becomes more likely to be drawn during the next drawing.
Many worthless betting strategies and systems are based on belief in the Gambler’s Fallacy. I got the idea for writing about this after reading an 888 online roulette article by Frank Scoblete entitled How to Take Advantage of Roulette Hot Spots. In that article, Scoblete recommends taking a count of each outcome for 3,700 spins in single-zero roulette and 3,800 spins in double-zero roulette in the hunt for ’hot numbers.’ Never mind that this would take about 100 hours to make this many observations, assuming the industry standard of 38 spins per hour.
Before going further, let me say that I strongly believe modern roulette wheels made by top brands like Cammegh are extremely precise and any bias would be minuscule compared to the house advantage. Thus, testing a modern roulette for bias would be a total waste of time. Now, testing a 30-year-old hand-me-down wheel in a banana republic might be another story. However, you’re on your own if you win a lot of money from said casino and try to leave with it.Roulette Betting
That said, if you track 3,800 outcomes in single-zero roulette, the average number of times any number will hit is 3800/38=100. I ran a simulation of over 1.3 trillion spins, counting how many times each number was hit, sorting the outcomes to find the most frequent number and how many times it was observed, and keeping a count of how many times the most frequent number in each simulation was seen. Hottest Number in 3,800 Spins of Double-Zero Roulette
As a former actuary, I hate to use a layman’s term like the ’hottest number,’ but that is how gamblers talk so will go with that. That said, following are the results of the count of the hottest number in millions of 3800-spin simulations. Count of the Hottest Number in 3,800 Spins on Double-Zero WheelStatisticValue Mean 122.02 Median 121 Mode 120 90th Percentile 128 95th Percentile 131 99th Percentile 136 99.9th Percentile 142
Here is what the table above means in plain simple English.
*The mean, or average, count of the hottest number is 122.02.
*The median count of the most frequent number is 121. This means that over 50% of time the most frequent number appeared 121 times or less, as well as 121 times or more. This is possible because the probability of 121 observations is in both groups.
*The mode, or most count of the hottest number is 120, which happens 8.29% of the time.
*The 90th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 90% .
*The 95th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 95%.
*The 99th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 99%.
*The 99.9th percentile is the smallest number such that the probability the count of the hottest number is at least 99.9%. Hottest Number in 3,700 Spins of Single-Zero Roulette
The results are very similar with 3,700 spins tracked on a single-zero wheel. Following is a summary of the results. Count of the Hottest Number in 3,700 Spins on Single-Zero WheelStatisticValue Mean 121.90 Median 121 Mode 120 90th Percentile 128 95th Percentile 131 99th Percentile 136 99.9th Percentile 142
The following table shows the full results of the simulation on both wheels. The two commulative columns show the probability that the count of the hottest number is the number on the left column or more. For example, the probability the hottest number in 3,700 spins of single-zero roulette is 130 or more is 0.072044. Summary of the Count of the Hottest Number in 3,700 Spins of Single-Zero Roulette and 3,800 spins of Double-Zero RouletteCountProbability
Single ZeroCummulative
Single ZeroProbability
Double ZeroCummulative
Double Zero 160 or More 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001 159 0.000000 0.000001 0.000000 0.000001 158 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001 157 0.000001 0.000002 0.000001 0.000002 156 0.000001 0.000003 0.000001 0.000003 155 0.000002 0.000005 0.000002 0.000005 154 0.000003 0.000009 0.000003 0.000008 153 0.000005 0.000013 0.000005 0.000013 152 0.000007 0.000020 0.000008 0.000021 151 0.000012 0.000032 0.000012 0.000033 150 0.000017 0.000049 0.000018 0.000051 149 0.000026 0.000075 0.000027 0.000077 148 0.000038 0.000114 0.000041 0.000118 147 0.000060 0.000174 0.000062 0.000180 146 0.000091 0.000265 0.000092 0.000273 145 0.000132 0.000397 0.000137 0.000409 144 0.000195 0.000592 0.000199 0.000608 143 0.000282 0.000874 0.000289 0.000898 142 0.000409 0.001283 0.000421 0.001319 141 0.000580 0.001863 0.000606 0.001925 140 0.000833 0.002696 0.000860 0.002784 139 0.001186 0.003882 0.001215 0.003999 138 0.001652 0.005534 0.001704 0.005703 137 0.002315 0.007849 0.002374 0.008077 136 0.003175 0.011023 0.003286 0.011363 135 0.004355 0.015378 0.004489 0.015852 134 0.005916 0.021295 0.006088 0.021940 133 0.007939 0.029233 0.008196 0.030136 132 0.010601 0.039834 0.010908 0.041044 131 0.013991 0.053824 0.014384 0.055428 130 0.018220 0.072044 0.018757 0.074185 129 0.023498 0.095542 0.024114 0.098299 128 0.029866 0.125408 0.030603 0.128901 127 0.037288 0.162696 0.038228 0.167130 126 0.045771 0.208467 0.046898 0.214027 125 0.055165 0.263632 0.056310 0.270337 124 0.064853 0.328485 0.066020 0.336357 123 0.074178 0.402662 0.075236 0.411593 122 0.081929 0.484591 0.082885 0.494479 121 0.087158 0.571750 0.087696 0.582174 120 0.088520 0.660269 0.088559 0.670734 119 0.084982 0.745252 0.084406 0.755140 118 0.076454 0.821705 0.075245 0.830385 117 0.063606 0.885312 0.061851 0.892236 116 0.048069 0.933381 0.046111 0.938347 115 0.032432 0.965813 0.030604 0.968952 114 0.019117 0.984930 0.017664 0.986616 113 0.009567 0.994496 0.008614 0.995230 112 0.003894 0.998390 0.003420 0.998650 111 0.001257 0.999647 0.001065 0.999715 110 0.000297 0.999944 0.000243 0.999958 109 0.000050 0.999994 0.000038 0.999996 108 or Less 0.000006 1.000000 0.000004 1.000000 Count of the Hottest Numbers in 300 Spins in Double-Zero Roulette
What if you don’t want to spend 100 hours gathering data on a single wheel? Some casinos are kind enough to give you, on a silver platter, the number of times in the last 300 spins the four ’hottest’ and ’coolest’ numbers occurred. The image at the top of the page shows an example taken on a double-zero wheel at the Venetian.
In 300 spins, the average number of wins on a double-zero wheel for any number is 300/38=7.9. As you can see from the image above, the four hottest numbers were 20, 5, 29, and 2, which occurred 15, 14, 13, and 12 times respectively. Is this unusual? No. In a simulation of over 80 billion spins, the most frequent number, in 300-spin experiments, appeared most frequently at 14 times with a probability of 27.4%. The most likely total of the second, third, and fourth most frequent numbers was 13, 12, and 12 times respectively, with probabilities of 37.9%, 46.5%, and 45.8%. So the results of the ’hottest’ numbers in the image above were a little more flat than average.
The following table shows the probabilities of the four hottest numbers in 300 spins of double-zero roulette. For example, the probability the third most frequent number happens 15 times is 0.009210. Roulette Betting RulesCount of the Hottest Four Numbers in 300 Spins on a Double-Zero WheelObservationsProbability
Most FrequentProbability Second
Most FrequentProbability Third
Most FrequentProbability Fourth
Most Frequent 25 or More 0.000022 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 24 0.000051 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 23 0.000166 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 22 0.000509 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 21 0.001494 0.000001 0.000000 0.000000 20 0.004120 0.000009 0.000000 0.000000 19 0.010806 0.000075 0.000000 0.000000 18 0.026599 0.000532 0.000003 0.000000 17 0.060526 0.003263 0.00006
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
コメント